Rating: HOLD
HOLD (5-tier) · cyclical compounder · conviction: low
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $96 |
| Triangulated Fair Value | $91 (-6% vs spot · triangulated FV) |
| 12-mo Scenario PWEV | $101 (+5% vs spot · 12m PWEV) |
| Forward P/E | 20.1x |
| Market Cap | $10B |
| 52-Week Range | $92–$134 |
EPS basis for the forward P/E and all scenario multiples: consensus forward EPS (broker-adjusted, non-GAAP).
Methodology: Valuation triangulated across five independent anchors — Monte Carlo (Student-t + regime switching), an independent DCF, peer re-rating, a sum-of-parts, and a scenario-weighted PWEV. Figures reconciled to Alpha Vantage 2026-06-26. Each chart below sits with the part of the thesis it evidences.
General research for a skeptical institutional reader. Not personalised investment advice; no position sizing or trade instructions. Figures as of the analysis date; verify before acting.
Investment Committee Summary
| Rating | HOLD · HOLD (5-tier) |
| Classification · conviction | cyclical compounder · low |
| Triangulated fair value | $91 (-6% vs spot · triangulated FV) |
| 12-mo scenario PWEV | $101 (+5% vs spot · 12m PWEV) |
| Next catalyst | 2026-02-12 — Q4/FY2025 results and Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) construction/opening update |
| Primary thesis-break | Macau gross gaming revenue (Wynn Macau + Wynn Palace) year-on-year < -8% (2 consecutive prints) |
📎 Download the full model (Excel) — DCF line items, scenarios, sensitivity, assumptions, and extended fundamentals.
Rating Bridge
Rating = HOLD because:
- Probability-weighted scenario value implies +5% vs spot
- Monte Carlo median implies -10% vs spot
- DCF fair value implies -120% vs spot
- Bear case (Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation) downside is -72% vs spot
- Net: reward/risk of 0.1× is not asymmetric enough for a Buy and not impaired enough for a Sell — hence Hold.
Investment Thesis
At $97.09 on a forward multiple near 20x, the market prices Wynn as a mid-cycle Macau and Las Vegas operator with earnings normalised around the modelled $5.35 base EPS and a levered balance sheet carrying $10.97B of net debt. The engine broadly agrees: the probability-weighted target of $100.80 sits close to spot, so the rating is HOLD, not a call to buy the cycle. Where our view differs is dispersion. The base case anchors an 8.8% operating margin and 4% growth, but the scenario set spans a Structural path near $27 to a Premium Mass Boom near $199, and the highest-probability tail is the Travel Recession demand shock the disc_travel cluster shares. The probability-weighted target reflects that fat-tailed spread rather than a central point estimate. The single most damaging risk is Macau concession and regulatory change: a binding restriction resets both GGR and the multiple at once, and against $10.97B of net debt the equity absorbs the full compression.
The dashboard below is the whole argument on one page: spot ($96) against each valuation anchor, the scenario tree, technicals and the options-implied move.
Anti-Thesis (The Real Bear Case)
The steelman bear is the Travel Recession demand shock, the cluster's highest-weighted state. Macau and Las Vegas gaming demand is discretionary and cyclical; a consumer pullback or a China slowdown cuts gross gaming revenue and premium-mass spend for one to two years. Because Wynn operates with high fixed property costs, a mid-single-digit revenue decline drives operating deleverage, compressing margin from the 8.8% base toward 7.2% or lower. Against $10.97B of net debt, softer EBITDA lifts leverage past comfortable levels precisely as the UAE development capital peaks, squeezing covenant headroom and the shareholder distribution. The multiple de-rates alongside earnings, taking the share toward the low-$60s recession target. This is not a token hedge: it is the modal path implied by the shared cycle.
Key Debate
Gross Margin explains 72% of Monte Carlo outcome variance — the single variable that decides which side is right.
Earnings-Call Disconfirmation & Sentiment
Derived signals from the MCH market-data store (Alpha Vantage transcripts + news). Quantitative tone only — a disconfirmation flag, not a substitute for reading the call.
Management vs analyst tone (2026Q1): management +0.39 vs analyst floor +0.00 → delta +0.39 (n=32 mgmt / 24 Q&A; 51th pctile across the S&P book, z +0.0).
Flag: TYPICAL — management-vs-analyst tone within the normal cross-sectional range.
| Quarter | Mgmt | Analyst | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2025Q4 | +0.32 | +0.18 | +0.14 |
| 2025Q3 | +0.48 | +0.37 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q2 | +0.60 | +0.53 | +0.07 |
News (last 365d, 1000 articles): avg ticker sentiment +0.13 (bullish 17% / bearish 4%)
Scenario Analysis
The tree runs from a structural 'Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation' downside ($27) to a 'Spike — Premium Mass Boom' bull case ($199); the probability-weighted blend (PWEV $101) is +5% versus spot.
| Scenario | Probability | Target | Return vs spot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation | 22% | $27 | -72% |
| Consumer / Travel Recession | 18% | $61 | -36% |
| Base — GGR Normalisation | 32% | $112 | +16% |
| Upcycle — Macau / Vegas Strength | 20% | $162 | +68% |
| Spike — Premium Mass Boom | 8% | $199 | +107% |
| Probability-Weighted (PWEV) | — | $101 | +5% |
Scenario rationale — what each probability buys (the driver path behind every target):
- Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation (22%, $27). Structural impairment — Macau concession / regional saturation: earnings AND the multiple compress together. Target sits below the 52-week low by construction. Drivers — implied_target: 30.24; probability: 0.22.
- Consumer / Travel Recession (18%, $61). Cyclical downturn — gross gaming revenue (Macau/Vegas) + premium-mass mix + development capital weakens for 1–2 years before normalising. Drivers — implied_target: 60.01; probability: 0.18.
- Base — GGR Normalisation (32%, $112). Mid-cycle — normalised gross gaming revenue (Macau/Vegas) + premium-mass mix + development capital; disciplined capital allocation; steady returns. Drivers — implied_target: 104.92; probability: 0.32.
- Upcycle — Macau / Vegas Strength (20%, $162). Upside — Macau + Vegas strength lifts earnings above mid-cycle; the multiple expands modestly. Drivers — implied_target: 167.34; probability: 0.2.
- Spike — Premium Mass Boom (8%, $199). Upside tail — sustained tight conditions or a structural re-rate on Macau + Vegas strength. Drivers — implied_target: 203.8; probability: 0.08.
Valuation Triangulation
Five anchors — but read them with their basis in mind. The Monte Carlo, the DCF terminal, and the peer re-rate all key off a market multiple, so they are not fully independent; only the discounted cash flows themselves are genuinely multiple-free. The discipline is to read the spread and weight the cash-based view, not to treat five numbers as five independent votes.
| Method | Basis | Fair Value | vs Spot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Carlo median (Student-t + regime) | multiple | $87 | -10% |
| Peer P/E re-rate | multiple | $71 | -27% |
| Peer EV/Revenue re-rate | multiple | $84 | -13% |
| Scenario PWEV | multiple | $101 | +5% |
| DCF (5-year + terminal) | cash flow + terminal × | $-19 | -120% |
| Triangulated (weighted) | — | $91 | -6% |
Peer EV/Revenue re-rate — 0% weight: it duplicates the peer-multiple information already carried by the Peer P/E anchor while ignoring margin mix; weighting both would double-count the peer view. Shown as a cross-check.
DCF excluded from the weighted blend — diverges >55% from the Monte-Carlo / scenario core. For a high-leverage equity the per-share DCF (enterprise value less large net debt) is hypersensitive to the terminal multiple; a peer re-rate across heterogeneous margins is apples-to-oranges. Shown above for reference; the blend leans on the multiple-discipline and scenario anchors.
Monte Carlo — the distribution, not a point
10,000 paths, Student-t shocks (fat tails) with a regime-switching overlay. The median lands at $87 and 44% of paths finish above spot. The variance decomposition shows the gross margin is the dominant swing factor (72% of variance). The fundamental driver, not the multiple, sets the spread — a cleaner setup.
DCF — the cash-flow anchor
Independent of the market multiple: a 5-year path, WACC 9.5%, 18x terminal FCF multiple → $-19. This anchor is deliberately the heaviest (41%): it is the valuation least hostage to the current multiple regime.
Peer benchmarking — relative value
Against the peer cohort, re-rating to the peer-median forward multiple (P/E 14.73x) implies $71. A premium is only justified by superior growth/margins; otherwise it is multiple risk. Weighted just 12% so the market's mood does not drive the fair value.
Across all anchors the spread is 143% of the median — wide (genuine disagreement — the blend carries low valuation confidence).
Revenue-Segment Breakdown
The company-specific drivers behind the valuation — each segment carries its own growth, margin, multiple and capex intensity. (Tags: FACT reported · ESTIMATE from disclosures · INFERENCE judgment.)
| Segment | Revenue | Mix | Growth | Op margin | EBIT | Multiple | Capex % | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casinos & Integrated Resorts | $7.3B | 100% | 4% | 8% | $0.6B | 21x | 10% | ESTIMATE |
| EBIT = segment revenue × operating margin (segment EBITDA not shown — per-segment D&A is not separately disclosed). |
Named Exposures
Demand & pricing cycle (FACT/ESTIMATE)
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| driver | gross gaming revenue (Macau/Vegas) + premium-mass mix + development capital |
| net_debt_or_cash_b | -10.97 |
Capital intensity & shareholder returns (ESTIMATE)
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| capex_pct_revenue | 0.1 |
| div_yield | 0.0096 |
Structural risk vs optionality (INFERENCE)
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| downside | Macau concession / regional saturation |
| upside | Macau + Vegas strength |
Industry Context — Consumer Discretionary — Travel
This name sits in the Consumer Discretionary — Travel as a casinos. gross gaming revenue (Macau/Vegas) + premium-mass mix + development capital Its scenarios are not guessed in isolation — they inherit a single, shared view of the cluster's driver cycle, so the names that depend on the same event are mutually consistent.
Value chain: BKNG (travel_booking) · MAR (hotels) · RCL (cruise) · ABNB (travel_booking) · HLT (hotels) · CCL (cruise) · LVS (casinos) · EXPE (travel_booking) · MGM (casinos) · WYNN (casinos) · NCLH (cruise)
| Shared state | Capex path | House view | This name implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Recession — Demand Shock | 39% | 40% | |
| Mid-Cycle — Normalised Travel Demand | 33% | 32% | |
| Upcycle — Strong Yields / Net-Unit Growth | 28% | 28% |
Mapping note: name-level 'Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation' (22%) + 'Consumer / Travel Recession' (18%) map to cluster Travel Recession — Demand Shock (40%); name-level 'Upcycle — Macau / Vegas Strength' (20%) + 'Spike — Premium Mass Boom' (8%) map to cluster Upcycle — Strong Yields / Net-Unit Growth (28%) — the cluster row is the SUM of the mapped scenario probabilities, not a different estimate.
On the cluster's key downside — Travel Recession — Demand Shock () — this name implies 40% vs the cluster house view of 39% (in line with the house). The cluster's full cross-stock reconciliation governs that the names which ride the same capex cycle assign it comparable odds.
Structure: Shared State — The disc_travel cycle is the shared macro driver. Driver — travel & leisure demand + consumer confidence + RevPAR/yields/bookings Dispersion — Members differ by cyclicality (quality compounders vs deep cyclicals).
Model Appendix
DCF — line items
| Year | Revenue | Op income | − Capex | + D&A | FCF | PV(FCF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY+1 | $8B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $0B | $0B |
| FY+2 | $8B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $0B | $0B |
| FY+3 | $8B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $0B | $0B |
| FY+4 | $8B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $0B |
| FY+5 | $9B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $1B | $0B |
| Terminal | — | — | — | — | $1B × 18x | $7B |
FCF is bridged: NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC (capex intensity 10% of revenue, weighted from the segments) — not a single conversion fudge.
WACC 9.5% · Σ PV(FCF) $2B + PV(terminal) $7B = EV $9B; + net cash → equity $-2B ÷ diluted shares 0.10B = $-19/share (exit-multiple terminal).
- Gordon (perpetuity-growth) terminal at 2.5% → $-32/share — a genuinely non-multiple, cash-based cross-check; the exit-multiple and Gordon values bracket the terminal-value risk.
- Incremental ROIC on the forecast capex ≈ 2% vs WACC 10% → below WACC — the incremental build is value-dilutive.
Peer set
| Peer | EV/Rev | Fwd P/E | Growth | Op margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | 3.205x | 14.84x | 4% | 25% |
| MGM | 2.321x | 23.58x | 4% | 7% |
| HAS | 2.966x | 14.62x | 3% | 28% |
| NCLH | 2.454x | 11.76x | 6% | 10% |
| Median | 2.71x | 14.73x | — | — |
Peer-median fwd P/E → $71; EV/Rev → $84.
Weighted fair-value math
| Anchor | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario PWEV | $101 | 50% | $51 |
| Monte Carlo median | $87 | 30% | $26 |
| Peer P/E | $71 | 20% | $14 |
| Triangulated | — | 100% | $91 |
Sensitivity
DCF/share — WACC × terminal multiple
| WACC ＼ Term× | 12.6x | 15.3x | 18.0x | 20.7x | 23.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $-34 | $-23 | $-12 | $-0 | $11 |
| 8% | $-37 | $-26 | $-15 | $-5 | $6 |
| 10% | $-40 | $-29 | $-19 | $-9 | $1 |
| 10% | $-42 | $-32 | $-23 | $-13 | $-3 |
| 12% | $-45 | $-35 | $-26 | $-17 | $-7 |
DCF/share — revenue CAGR Δ × op-margin Δ
| CAGRΔ ＼ MgnΔ | -3.0pp | -1.5pp | +0.0pp | +1.5pp | +3.0pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0pp | $-56 | $-43 | $-30 | $-17 | $-4 |
| -1.5pp | $-52 | $-39 | $-25 | $-11 | $3 |
| +0.0pp | $-49 | $-34 | $-19 | $-4 | $11 |
| +1.5pp | $-45 | $-29 | $-13 | $3 | $18 |
| +3.0pp | $-41 | $-24 | $-7 | $10 | $27 |
Tornado — DCF/share swing by driver (widest first)
| Driver | Low | High | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Op margin ±3pp | $-49 | $11 | $59 |
| Capex intensity ±15% | $-36 | $-2 | $34 |
| Revenue CAGR ±3pp | $-30 | $-7 | $23 |
| Terminal × ±15% | $-29 | $-9 | $20 |
| WACC ±1pp | $-23 | $-15 | $7 |
Company lever — SoP/share vs Casinos & Integrated Resorts multiple (AI re-rating) (base 21x)
| Multiple | 14.7x | 17.8x | 21.0x | 24.1x | 27.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoP/share | $926 | $1,144 | $1,369 | $1,586 | $1,811 |
Consensus & Market Expectations
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| Street target (mean) | $136 (+41% vs spot · street) |
| House target | $101 (-25.8% vs street) |
| Sell-side coverage | 19 analysts (SB 3 / B 15 / H 1 / S 0 / SS 0; net score 0.55) |
| Consensus FY EPS | $5.19; house below (-7.4%) |
| Consensus FY revenue | $7.8B; house in-line (-2.7%) |
_Consensus figures: Alpha Vantage sell-side aggregates. Where the house view sits materially above or below the street, the divergence is itself a datum — see the thesis.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $10.2B — highly levered |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 5.81x |
| Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) | 1.8x |
| Current ratio | 1.63x |
| Lease obligations | $1.6B |
| Cash & ST investments | $2.1B |
Balance-sheet data as of 2025-12-31 (Alpha Vantage).
Capital Allocation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Free cash flow | $0.7B |
| Buybacks / dividends | $0.4B / $0.2B |
| Total shareholder yield | 5.5% |
| Payout as % of FCF | 80.2% |
| Reinvestment (capex / OCF) | 48.9% |
| SBC as % of FCF | 13.3% |
| Allocation stance | returns-heavy |
Free-Cash-Flow Quality
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| FCF margin | 9.5% |
| FCF conversion (FCF / net income) | 169.2% |
| FCF yield | 6.8% |
| Capex intensity (capex / revenue) | 9.1% |
| FCF − SBC (diagnostic) | $0.6B |
| Capex split (maint / growth) | 40% / 60% — Capital-intensive integrated resorts; growth capex funds Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) and concession-mandated non-gaming Macau investment, maintenance sustains existing properties. |
Accounting quality: SBC 1.3% of revenue; cash conversion (OCF/NI) 331% — cash-backed.
Catalyst Calendar
- 2026-02-12 (~-146d) — Q4/FY2025 results and Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) construction/opening update (authored)
- 2026-07-15 (~7d) — Macau premium-mass GGR share and non-gaming capex-commitment checkpoint (authored)
- 2026-08-06 (~29d) — Quarterly earnings — est. EPS $1.08 (AV EARNINGS_CALENDAR)
- 2027-01-15 (~191d) — Wynn Al Marjan Island phased opening (UAE) (authored)
Forecast Track Record
- EPS surprise: beat 25.0% of the last 8 quarters; average surprise +0.4%.
Competitive Moat
Narrow moat. The moat is a scarce Macau gaming concession plus premium-brand real estate on the Las Vegas Strip — licence-limited but concession-renewal and jurisdiction-concentration risk make it only narrow. Falsifiable: if the Macau concession framework tightens (higher gaming tax, non-gaming capex mandates) or premium-mass share slips for two years, the ~20x forward multiple is too high and should compress toward a levered-cyclical ~10-12x.
Moat sources:
- One of six limited Macau gaming concessions (renewed 2023, 10-year) — a hard regulatory barrier to entry
- Premium Wynn/Encore brand commanding a disproportionate share of high-margin premium-mass play
- Irreplaceable Las Vegas Strip and Cotai real-estate footprint
- Concentration/renewal risk (near single-jurisdiction Macau dependence, $10.97B net debt) caps the moat at narrow
Regulatory & Legal Risk
| Issue | Probability | Valuation sensitivity | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macau concession terms — gaming-tax rate and mandated non-gaming investment | medium (~40%) | high - tighter terms hit the dominant earnings jurisdiction, ~10-15% of FV | 12-24m |
| China capital-flow / visa policy affecting Macau visitation | medium (~35%) | high - throttles the demand base for the core asset, ~8-12% of FV | 12-24m |
| UAE gaming-regulatory framework build-out for the Al Marjan project | low (~20%) | medium - delays/limits the new growth pillar, ~4-6% of FV | 12-24m |
Probabilities and sensitivities are analyst estimates, not market-implied.
Scenario Macro & Key Risks
| Scenario | Macro assumption | Key risk |
|---|---|---|
| Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation | Concession terms tighten and regional Asian competition saturates the market permanently. | Structural earnings reset toward the ~$27 tail if the core Macau franchise de-rates. |
| Consumer / Travel Recession | Global travel and discretionary gaming spend contract in a consumer downturn. | Levered balance sheet ($10.97B net debt) amplifies the earnings hit at the trough. |
| Base — GGR Normalisation | Macau/Vegas GGR settles at mid-cycle; premium-mass mix holds. | The highest-probability tail is the travel-recession leg, not the base. |
| Upcycle — Macau / Vegas Strength | Post-pandemic Macau recovery and Vegas strength push GGR above mid-cycle. | Upcycle is cyclical and mean-reverts; capex commitments consume the cash windfall. |
| Spike — Premium Mass Boom | A premium-mass demand boom drives Macau margins to a peak (~$199 path). | A demand spike is unsustainable and invites regulatory/tax response. |
What the Market Is Pricing In
At the current price, the market pays 18.6× forward EPS, vs the house DCF terminal 18.0×, and a peer median 14.73×. The house DCF sits 120% below spot, so the market is pricing in more than the house case — roughly 3.0pp of revenue CAGR.
Variant perception: the house view is below-consensus, and the thesis is primarily event-driven.
| Metric | Consensus | House | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.8 | 7.6 | High |
| EPS | 5.2 | 4.8 | Medium |
| Target price | 135.9 | 100.8 | Medium |
Peer Quality & Weighting
| Peer | Fwd P/E | Growth | Op margin | Quality | Weight cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | 14.84× | 4% | 25% | segment | 50% |
| MGM | 23.58× | 4% | 7% | direct | 100% |
| HAS | 14.62× | 3% | 28% | segment | 50% |
| NCLH | 11.76× | 6% | 10% | segment | 50% |
Quality-weighted forward P/E: 17.7× (simple median 14.73×). Direct peers count 100%, segment 50%, broad 25%.
Valuation-anchor screen: DCF (exit) (excluded (>3× or <0.3× spot)); DCF (Gordon) (excluded (>3× or <0.3× spot)). Anchor median 70.7. Extreme/excluded anchors carry no headline weight.
Historical-range cross-check: 52-week range $92–$134, centre $111 (+15% vs spot); spot sits at the 11th percentile of the range. Low-weight mean-reversion cross-check, not a fundamental anchor.
Risk / Reward & Margin of Safety
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Upside to triangulated FV | $91 (-6% vs spot · triangulated FV) |
| Downside to bear case (Structural — Macau Concession / Regional Saturation) | $27 (-72% vs spot · bear scenario) |
| Reward/risk ratio | 0.1× |
| Margin of safety (FV vs spot) | -6% |
| P(price > spot) — Monte Carlo | 44% |
Reward/risk compares triangulated upside against the probability-weighted bear target, not the extreme tail. Bull case (Spike — Premium Mass Boom): $199.
Assumption Register
| Assumption | Value | Used in | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC | 9.5% | DCF discount rate | estimate (CAPM) |
| Terminal multiple | 18× | DCF exit value | estimate (peer-anchored) |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | DCF Gordon terminal | estimate |
| SBC dilution | 0.0%/yr | PWEV, MC, DCF (charged once) | estimate (from SBC/rev) |
| EPS basis | consensus forward EPS (broker-adjusted, non-GAAP) | all forward P/E & scenario multiples | definition |
Sensitivity-ranked drivers (widest fair-value swing first): Op margin ±3pp (59.0); Capex intensity ±15% (34.0); Revenue CAGR ±3pp (23.0); Terminal × ±15% (20.0); WACC ±1pp (7.0).
Inputs, Sources & Confidence
Every load-bearing input, labelled by type and confidence. (reported fact · company guidance · consensus estimate · market data · house estimate · inference.)
| Input | Value | Type | Source | Confidence | Used in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue TTM | $7.3B | reported fact | 10-K/10-Q via AV | High | Forecast base, EV/Rev |
| FY+1 guided revenue | $7.6B | company guidance | Company guidance | Medium | Forecast, SoP |
| Consensus FY EPS | $5.186 | consensus estimate | Sell-side consensus via AV | Medium | Variant perception |
| Diluted shares | 0.105B | reported fact | 10-K via AV | High | Market cap, per-share |
| Net debt / cash | $10.227B | reported fact | Balance sheet via AV | High | EV, DCF equity bridge |
| WACC | 9.5% | house estimate | CAPM (beta/rf) | Medium | DCF discount rate |
| Terminal multiple | 18× | house estimate | Peer/historical range | Medium | DCF exit value |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | house estimate | Long-run GDP+ | Medium | DCF Gordon terminal |
Source Log
| Source | Type | Date | Used for | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha Vantage — GLOBAL_QUOTE / OVERVIEW | market data | 2026-07-08 | Price, market cap, EV, 52-week range, forward P/E | Alpha Vantage 2026-06-26 |
| Company income statement (10-K / 10-Q) via Alpha Vantage | reported fact | 2026-07-08 | Revenue, gross/operating margin, EBIT, interest expense | INCOME_STATEMENT / latest annual |
| Company balance sheet (10-K / 10-Q) via Alpha Vantage | reported fact | 2026-07-08 | Cash, debt, net debt, leases, equity, coverage | BALANCE_SHEET / latest annual |
| Company cash-flow statement (10-K / 10-Q) via Alpha Vantage | reported fact | 2026-07-08 | Operating cash flow, capex, FCF, buybacks, dividends, SBC | CASH_FLOW / latest annual |
| Company earnings releases via Alpha Vantage | reported fact | 2026-07-08 | Reported EPS, surprise history | EARNINGS / quarterly |
| Sell-side consensus via Alpha Vantage | consensus estimate | 2026-07-08 | Forward revenue/EPS consensus, analyst count | EARNINGS_ESTIMATES |
| Earnings calendar via Alpha Vantage | market data | 2026-07-08 | Next earnings date, catalyst timing | EARNINGS_CALENDAR |
| Company guidance | company guidance | 2026-07-08 | FY guided revenue / non-GAAP EPS basis | company guidance / earnings call |
| MCH segment model (from filings & disclosures) | house estimate | 2026-07-08 | Segment revenue, margins, multiples, AI decomposition | company_context (authored, tagged) |
| MCH qualitative analysis | inference | 2026-07-08 | Moat, regulatory risk, scenario macro, catalysts | company_context enrichment (authored) |
| MCH investment thesis & falsification triggers | house estimate | 2026-07-08 | Thesis, anti-thesis, thesis-break signals | authored §5.3 |
Citation coverage: 13/14 mandated claims sourced. Filing URLs are not available via the market-data provider; company statements are cited as 10-K/10-Q via Alpha Vantage.
Load-Bearing Assumptions
DCF: WACC 10%, terminal multiple 18×, FY+5 revenue $9B. Triangulation leans 41% on DCF, 29% on PWEV.
Reasons the Thesis Could Fail (Falsifiable)
Pre-registered signals that would break the thesis — each polices a specific scenario boundary and is checked at every earnings update:
- Macau gross gaming revenue (Wynn Macau + Wynn Palace) year-on-year < -8% (2 consecutive prints → Travel Recession — Demand Shock). Macau is the majority of segment EBITDA. A sustained high-single-digit GGR decline moves the base case toward the Consumer / Travel Recession path (growth -3%) and threatens the structural read.
- Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA margin < 6.5% (2 consecutive prints → Travel Recession — Demand Shock). Base assumes an 8.8% operating margin. A drop toward the recession-case 7.2% operating level, and below it, confirms operating deleverage rather than a transient mix effect.
- Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) total project cost guidance > 15% above the declared budget (single event → Mid-Cycle — Normalised Travel Demand). The forward capex glidepath peaks around the UAE build. A material budget overrun raises development capital, delays free-cash conversion and pressures the levered balance sheet.
- Net debt / trailing adjusted EBITDA > 5.5x (2 consecutive prints → Travel Recession — Demand Shock). Net debt is $10.97B against modest earnings. Rising leverage during the UAE build, if EBITDA also softens, tightens covenant headroom and constrains the dividend and buyback.
- Macau concession or table-cap regulatory change adverse any binding restriction on tables, junkets or premium-mass access (single event → Travel Recession — Demand Shock). The structural bear rests on concession and regulatory risk. A binding adverse change validates the Structural — Macau Concession path in which earnings and multiple compress together.
Fact / Inference / Speculation
- FACT: Spot $96; 52-week range $92–$134; engine rating HOLD; base-case target $101 (+5%). (source: Alpha Vantage 2026-06-26, 8 July 2026)
- INFERENCE: Triangulated FV $91 (-6% vs spot · triangulated FV); the rating tracks the Monte-Carlo + scenario-PWEV core; the cash-flow anchor sits below the multiple-discipline core.
- SPECULATION: At current prices the embedded bet is that Gross Margin keeps surprising favourably — an operating call the next two prints will test.
Recommendation: HOLD
Balanced: triangulated fair value $46 (-53% vs spot); the outcome hinges on Gross Margin. The debate is Gross Margin — a fundamental call.
Disclosures & Limitations
This report is for informational and research purposes only. It is not personalised investment advice and does not consider any investor's objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance, tax position, or liquidity needs.
- No suitability assessment has been performed for any individual.
- Market data may be delayed or inaccurate; figures are as of the analysis date.
- Model outputs (fair values, targets, scenario probabilities) are estimates and may be wrong.
- Forecasts are uncertain; past performance is not indicative of future returns.
- The author or publisher may hold positions in securities mentioned.
- Users should verify information against primary sources (company filings) before acting.
- Investing involves risk of loss; there is no guarantee any target price is achieved.
- Ratings follow a defined research methodology (12-month expected-return thresholds), not individual circumstances.